The rumour mills have been hard at work over the last few weeks spouting out news that this year will mark the reveal of the Playstation 4 and the next Xbox. If you throw into the mix the release of the Playstation Vita and the Wii U things are certainly shaping up to be an interesting year for consoles, portable and hand-held.

But while we are all so heavily focused on what the next generation of games consoles is going to look like, the more interesting question is what will follow that…

The Apple App store has proven that digital content can be real substitute for purchasing a physical retail product. Criticism can be levied at whether or not games on platforms such as the iPad compare to those in the home console market, but that doesn’t change the reality that consumers are handing over their hard-earned money for a purely digital product. All that stands between them is a better processor and a joy-pad.

Meanwhile, given the vast numbers of people who still are without broadband internet, there is little-to-no chance that the next Xbox and the PS4 will be digital-only products – simply put, there is too much money still to be made from the selling of boxed products. But will this still be the case in a decades time?

2012 may well mark the end the beginning of the end for the console market as we know it. Where might we be in 2020?

Microsoft

Microsoft has already stated that Games For Windows will be consolidated within Xbox Live upon the release of Windows 8. When you combine that with the Windows phone handset, what you are left with is a portable digital profile which can follow you from PC to the living room to your pocket when you are on the go.

There is a future for Microsoft where they leave the hardware market altogether. Xbox Live could well become a piece of licensed software, available in set-top boxes much like Freeview, with a subscription system in place for consumers to access premium content. Games are stored on the cloud, but the service would be much more than just CoD multiplayer.

We are already witnessing the transformation of Xbox Live from an online games platform to a media hub for the home. In ten years time accessing gaming content through it will most likely be secondary to the television, internet and music functionality which the device has on offer. A true home entertainment platform which offers gaming, but is not designed around it.

Sony

It takes even less imagination than we needed with Microsoft to conceive a Playstation-less future. Given the rapid trend towards the consolidation of products into a singular device (home entertainment and gaming console as one, the iPhone etc), together with the competition from services like OnLive, having the Playstation hardware built in to Sony Bravia television seems like a natural and inevitable step.

The infrastructure already exists for Sony since they already have a strong position within the television market place, and much like the PSN profile flows between PS3 and PSP/Vita, they are only a few steps behind Microsoft in creating a singular, unified user profile to take everywhere. 

Nintendo

Unlike the other two leaders in the home console market, the future for Nintendo is a lot less easy to predict. Initial concerns suggest that this year may see the WiiU dead on arrival as Nintendo continues to falter and misjudge the marketplace.

Nintendo always maintains a healthy presence even when they are the underdog, but given how late they are releasing an HD games console into the market, and the question mark which still hangs over the WiiU online functionality, this year could mark the beginning of the end for Nintendo as we know them.

The 3DS will most likely continue with moderate success as long as the software continues to reach the standard set in the last few months, but with the escalating success of mobile phones as gaming platforms, will we ever realistically see another successful hand-held from Nintendo?

Will the day come that we play a 69p Mario which we brought from the Apple App store?

Can Nintendo afford not to explore that market?

Apple

Realistically speaking Apple will most likely continue doing what they are doing. Each year the new iPhone, iPad and iPod outsell their predecessors. Each year the new devices come closer and closer to matching the graphical fidelity of the home consoles

Apple will most likely enter the home console market at some point in the coming few years. Placing the Apple App Store onto Apple TV instantly positions the company against the likes of Xbox Live Arcade and PSN, bringing a catalogue of thousands of casual games to the living room. Use the iPhone and iPad as the controller and you have instant home console.

Other rumours which have been circulating lately state that Apple could be releasing a television in the future, and that the iPhone 5 will walk the gap between the phone and the tablet. Apple are difficult to predict when it comes to the nature of their product.

What is easier to predict is the massive success of those products.

OnLive

OnLive are already reported to be looking at having their streaming service built in with televisions, and in many respects are beating Microsoft and Sony to the punch. Already available on tablet devices, OnLive may not be flawless, but they are on the attack on all fronts.

With a presence on the Android App store (and soon to be released on the Apple App Store), a console available for those who want the living room gaming experience, and AAA games which can be streamed straight through your browser, OnLive could well become the first unified gaming profile to span across all walks of life.

It has a long way to go in attracting publishers and users, but it is only a matter of time for OnLive before they take their spot alongside the other gaming platforms.

Closing Thoughts

Everything above is pure speculation cobbled together from looking how the marketplace is changing. For decades gaming has involved a console, a physical piece of game media, and a controller. The first big leap which started to redefine this standard came with the internet, and services such as the original Xbox Live, taking the multiplayer experience into new territory.

The next big leap is not far away.